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日志


9月8日

Yeah, TS Fred

He’s not really worth mentioning.  That is all.

9月4日

Invest 95L off Africa

With the lack of advancing fronts, this puppy might spin up and actually hit land.  Maybe.  But don’t hold your breath.

9月1日

From Invest 94L to TS Erika in one shot

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/012047.shtml

In other news, aren’t the local low temps awesome?  It’s practically fall!

8月31日

Invest 94L is showing some potential, and a cold winter.

Invest 94L is well on her way to becoming TS Erika. 

In other news, signs of a long, cold winter are all over, especially on the eastern seaboard.

8月21日

TD4/Danny? Maybe!

 

There’s a nice pretty rotation behind the wave just coming off Africa.  Looks like a decent chance of it spinning up into something more fun.  Guess we’ll know more this time tomorrow.

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division
You can't see the rotation from this water vapor image, but see the funkiness between the canaries and africa? Yeah. Rar.

8月19日

Hurricane Bill is going out to sea, another threat to Texas.

Ana died with a whimper.  Claudette did too.  Bill is getting big, but is only a threat to Bermuda.

There’s an un-invested area of interest just off the yucatan (about 85’W 20’N) with rotation and pressure characteristics that make it worth attention.  Steering currents would send it to the central Texas coast.  It likely won’t develop into much.

8月14日

Invest 90L, expect hurricane Ana or Bill in the gulf!

Okay, maybe Ana, but I’m thinking the leading area of interest has potential to spin up and swing north.

My completely unofficial amateur prediction is a north to central mexico hit by a cat 2 or 3.  The gulf is blazing hot in places, so there’s some energy available.  The steering currents are all screwy from the previous invests that are up by Florida now – we can get more accuracy when they calm down.  With any luck, we can get this puppy up a little north to Texas in a couple of weeks.

Get your water bottled!

8月11日

Tropical depression 2!

From the NHC:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

I still think it will go out to die in the atlantic.  Oh well, maybe she’ll make TS Ana.

8月10日

Invest 99L, eastern Atlantic

Invest 99L is trying to spin up over the eastern Atlantic ocean.  I’d put very good money on this one being, at best, a minor named storm, skipping up off the east cost, and dying in the north Atlantic.

I hate this year’s hurricane season.

atl1

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

8月4日

Very interesting tropical wave off the Canary Islands

It’s the only one circled, below (Fig 1).  I told you guys to watch it Wednesday when it was hopping off Africa.  Looks like others are on the bandwagon.  The steering currents are potentially favorable to bring it over the Yucatan and up the Texas coast.  It will have to make it across some moderate shear off Central America (Fig 2), assuming the shear stays in place, which is likely for a week.  It’s also lined up for a good shot of hot water off the NE of South America, extending west from Guyana (Fig 3), though the Gulf has been cooling a little and western temps are low enough to moderate any storm.

This is still a couple of weeks out, so don’t place much stock in this at all.  As always, be prepared for hurricane season, but don’t go crazy.

Fig 1, NWS sat vapor image of western atlantic showing highlighted area of interest 1.]\

UW Madison CIMSS illustrating wind shear, especially over Venezuela.

NOAA/NWS sea temp analysis; note warmer area to the NE of South America.